Pathogenesis
There are 2 step of this project. Approved Step 1 then you can start Step 2. Must have posted ANSWER in 5/31
Example of the 6 step evaluation is uploaded
STEP 1
The first step for this project is to find a topic of interest to you which I will also approve of. I will approve of any topic which meets these criteria:
(a) it must be an unsolved problem of science, specifically one with (at least) two well-defined and disjoint theories (see below for links to unsolved problems in science). That is, each theory is telling a very different causal story about what’s happening that explains the phenomenon in question so that, if one theory is correct, the other must be incorrect. You will just pick the best (in your opinion) two theories, even if there are many. Avoid “theories” that just point to statistical correlations but that do not propose a clear causal account. For instance, suppose some disease D for which science has not yet figured out the pathogenesis. Theory A states that M causes N which causes O which causes D. Theory B states that R causes P which causes O which causes D. You will then weigh the evidence and make a decision which theory is best supported (so far).
(b) Secondly, there must be empirical (experimental) support for each of the two theories. You will not be able to write the prediction or data steps without there being extant empirical research results.
There are many unsolved problems of science that meet these two requirements among the following links:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unsolved_problems_in_biology
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unsolved_problems_in_neuroscience
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unsolved_problems_in_geoscience
https://web.archive.org/web/20161228233544/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unsolved_problems_in_medicine (Links to an external site.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unsolved_problems_in_physics
STEP 2
First, you must select a topic that meets the stated criteria (unsolved problem in science, two disjoint causal theories (i.e., if one theory is right, the other is wrong), an existing body of empirical research supporting each theory). If you have any doubts about your topic selection, you may ask me for confirmation. If you write on a topic not meeting the criteria, you risk getting a zero score.
Next, even if there exist many theories attempting to explain the unsolved problem, you should just identify the two strongest (in your opinion) competing theories. Investigate each theory and its supporting research carefully.
You will write your paper with the same subheadings as used in your homework assignments involving 2 models (as we did in analyzing crucial experiments): Real World, Model 1, Model 2, Prediction 1, Prediction 2, Data, Positive Evidence, Negative Evidence.
Unlike your homework answers, each section will be more expansive and involve more details.
There is a 1000 word minimum, not including the works cited page (which you must include).
Make sure you are putting the right content in the appropriate places (e.g., don’t tell me about data in the “Model” section, etc.). Also, you want to find differing predictions for each model, not matching ones. In the evaluative sections, I will be looking to see how you have carefully weighed the evidence and come to a judicious verdict, declaring one theory the stronger one over the other.
In the evaluative sections (Positive/Negative Evidence sections), you will declare your verdict regarding which theory is the “winner” and which is not, based on your consideration of the quality/quantity of supportive (and/or disconfirming) research and satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) of theoretical virtues.
Lastly, your paper will be processed by TurnItIn.com, so not only should you include a works cited page, you should also make sure any words/ideas not your own are properly quoted and/or cited.
6 step evaluation
Student’s name
University affiliation
Submission date
Exercise 4.1
Real world: The focus of the study is that a person psyche/ consciousness can leave the body for sometimes and go to imaginative places.
Model: The model of this study is based on statement that a person’s psyche can briefly leave the body and travel at the speed of light to distant places.
Prediction: a human’s being consciousness leaves the body and travels for longer distances where the body is left in unconscious state.
Data: From the example given in the study, the consciousness of a person leaves for some few moments where it goes to very distant places and even enjoys the view of the area and the environment it is.
Negative evidence: No! It is evident that a person’s psyche leaves the body for few moments and the comes back. The data and the prediction in this study agree on similar thing.
Positive evidence: Yes! From the case study, when a person sits down and focuses on the movement of the second hand of a wall clock. Moves their sight to another place and then into the clock again, they will observe that the secondhand stops for a moment. Similarly, the consciousness of a person leaves the body to the place where a person thinks of mostly. The conclusion made by the research study is that actually the consciousness of a person can leave the body for some few moment and tour a place and then back to the body. At this particular time, the body of the person is unconscious since the psyche is not in the body.
Exercise 4.2
Real world: The human body is made up of three different parts. It is the adult part of the human being personality that helps them make decisions that brings us together and minimize conflicts among the people.
Model: The model used in this study states that the human body/ each person is made of them three different personalities/composites. The child that is made of feelings like that of helplessness and curiosity. The parent part of personality that is made up of the experiences of a person and finally, the adult part of personality that develops as a person learns on different ways control their lives.
Prediction: the adult personality helps people deal with their differences effectively without hurting each other.
Data: From the research, soon as the patients used their adult personalities to handle their differences, they were able to come to effective decisions and typically benefited from the adult personality.
Negative evidence: No! The prediction made by the transactional analysis therapists that the couple will resolve their differences if they apply their adult personalities when handling with issues actually came to happen. The couple benefited after they were counselled by the therapist.
Positive evidence: Yes! The results of the patients using the adult personality when handling the differences was resolved. Unlike before, when they did not agree on a common thing, the patients were now doing well and had resolved all the problems. From the research study, the conclusion that adult personality helps people to learn how to control their own lives will be correct. As soon as the patients/ couple learned to individually control one’s life, they have been getting along so well and are not in conflicts.
Exercise 4.3
Real world: This study focuses on the reactive part of the mind and how it functions.
Model: The model used in this study research is the dianetics theory of the mind. That states that the mind is made up of two different parts. The reactive and the analytical mind.
Prediction: The reactive mind records all the situations that happens when among the people. The happenings are recorded in the engrams where at a certain point of time, the person will experience something similar to what they what experienced.
Data: From the research study, when person gets to be is a specific area or situation and experiences either sounds, sees something, tastes something or even feels something, when they get back to that particular area, the person will experience the same thing they experience even if they were unconscious or did not feel them,
Negative evidence: No! the data and the prediction from the study research agree.
Positive evidence: From the research, the reactive part of the mind has engrams. These engrams act as the storage areas of all the experiences that a person goes through. They develop as early when they are babies. This is to imply that even babies have their experience back. If this is the case, why is it that when the kids develop and mature and still go back to where they experienced something they are not able to recall back. Is it really possible for the babies to experience them back? Take a look at where a kid was breastfed and brought up by their biological mother but as soon as they were around one year old, the mother abandons them. These kids had probably seen their mothers since their sight was fully developed. But when these kids grow, they forget and cannot even remember how their mothers looked like. There is a big question around the engrams developing when we are babies. Therefore, this is an inconclusive data.
Exercise 4.4
Real world: This study focuses on an economist who predicts the future of the stock market each year.
Model: The model of this study is based on the economist’s prediction that the stock market will always crash every year.
Prediction: Market stock would crash every year the economist made his predictions.
Data: All the predictions made by the economist that the market stock will fail did not happen in all years he mad predictions.
Negative evidence: Yes! – After the year 1929, all the predictions made by the scientist did not pass. Therefore, the data and the prediction do not agree.
No! – The prediction previously made by the economist for the year 1929 came to pass and the market stock crashed.
Positive evidence: This is an inconclusive data. Would the data have been likely to be a coincidence? From the study, the economist has been making several predictions that did not happen. What makes this case not convincing that the economist’s prediction really led to the crash of the market is because of the other predictions that he made regarding the same market stock that did not happen. Is t possible that it was a coincidence that happened just at the same time he had made the prediction? The conclusion to this case study is does not conclude to the cause of the first market crash.
Exercise 4.5
Real world: The focus of this study is on the people who are born between January 21 and February 18, the aquarians.
Model: According to the model, people born between January 21 and February 18 are referred to as the aquarians and they are generally known to be the scientists
Prediction: People born between 21st January and 18th February are generally scientists.
Data: From the case study, people like Copernicus, Galileo and Thomas were born around January 21st and February 18th and are all scientists.
Negative evidence: No! both prediction and data agree. The scientist was born around January and February and all are known scientist.
Positive evidence: This is an inconclusive data. The study has well shown that some of the known scientists are indeed aquarians. Born between 21st January and 18th February. However, this information cannot conclude to the reality of the study case. According to the world health organization, about 385,000 babies are born each day. Simple calculations will show that the difference between 21st of January and 18th of February, is actually 4 weeks. A total of 28 days. If about 385,000 babies are born daily in the whole world, this means that between those days a total of over ten million children are born. Conclusions from the study will assume that all these kids are scientist.
If that is the case, why then do we not have a huge number of known scientists in the world? The scientists who are well known in the world are less and not all the other people are scientists. If at all the people born between the specified date are indeed aquarians, why do the globe have few known scientists. Since the beginning of the Aquarius, the globe is supposedly to have a lot of scientist.
From the case study, one would presume that all scientist is born between those specified date. But is really true that all scientists are born in the specified dates? If that is the case, recently we know about bill gates. He is a well-known scientist all around the globe. However, he was born on October. Is really true that scientist is born between January and February?
Exercise 4.6
Real world: The focus of this study is based on the people who gain back their life after a long period of being dead.
Model: The model of this study is based on Dr, Moody’s evidence from the research he conducted among the subjects that he claims were subjects of death but gained back their life.
Prediction: People come back to life after experiencing their death call.
Data: From the subjects interviewed by Moody, people indeed gain back their life after they have been almost approaching their death. Results from other researchers confirm that indeed people can be in life after life situation. (gaining back life just after they are almost dying.)
Negative evidence: No! The data and the prediction agree.
Positive evidence: (Inconclusive data) If in need the people/subjects claimed to have seen their death approach, how would they prove this. Carl Sagan does not agree to the what most of the researcher supporting near death experiences have to say. According to him, near death experiences are recollections of experience of being born. That will not necessarily base my discussion. From the study, most of the subjects interviewed in the study are mostly in the hospitals. Is it possible that the patients were exhausted and due to the chemicals from the drugs they were consuming altered their minds? Is it possible that all these were imaginations and not the reality? However, have there been any case of the near-death experiences that saw their death approach while at their homes? If so, were they under medication? This is because medication alter the thinking capacity of a person and can even lead to the person having imaginations that they would consider them as reality.
Exercise 4.7
Real world: The focus of the study is about aliens that abducted people.
Model: The model of this concept is based on the assumption that people were abducted by aliens, examined and then released.
Prediction: 1- Aliens actually existed and abducted people. This is because different authors composed books with similar concepts despite them being so far from each other
2- Aliens did not exist and it was all suggestions made by the hypnotists themselves
Data: 1- Aliens existed and from the different authors, they exhibited same characters in terms of appearance
2- Aliens did not exist and the people who have seen the aliens under hypnosis were made to believe due to the culture of hypnosis that directs people on what to see.
Negative evidence: No! From the first evidence and prediction, aliens existed and abducted people. This is agreed upon since the evidence from the different authors who have never met or been in the same country compose books with similar context about the aliens.
No! The second data and the prediction do agree on the same thing. Aliens did not actually exist and what people believed was aliens was an impact from the hypnotist themselves who made them believe so.
Positive evidence: If actually the aliens existed, why would they abduct the people and then release them? The different authors who agree that the aliens existed are actually in hypnosis. In a way, I would side with the second rival of the first statement. The main reason being, why would the subjects who claimed that they were abducted not tell what type of tests were conducted on them. It could be imaginations or dreams that they received while they were in dreams. In turn to the second assumption about the alien’s existence, what would be the main reason as to why he believes that the aliens did not exist. The psychologist does not clearly illustrate why or how the people dreams and memories reinforced the each other to make people believe aliens actually existed and abducted people. (Inconclusive data)
Exercise 4.8
Real world: Elijah declaring that God is the only powerful and true God beside the Baal.
Model: The model used in this case, is the power of Elijah to call upon his God manifest at the contest and show that he is the only true God aside from the prophet of Baal who had the highest number of followers at the time of contest.
Prediction: The prediction made is that Only God has true powers and he is the only true God to be worshipped.
Data: From the story, God showed himself and proved to be the only true God by sending fire to burn the altar made by Elijah. Despite him pouring water all around the altar, God sent fire and burnt the altar and the sacrifice on it.
Negative evidence: No! The data and the prediction agree to each other.
Positive evidence: Yes! From the story, Elijah challenged the prophets of Baal. He was not really against their god as he said that “if the lord is God, follow him but if Baal is God, follow him.” He then told them to prepare their altar where they would offer the sacrifice and call upon ball to burn the altar. Elijah was to against the same thing. Sine they all were to call upon their God, the prophets of Ball started where they called him but were not answered. The prophets of Ball prayed for a very long time but nothing happened.
It was now Elijah’s time to call upon his God. Unlike the prophets, Elijah covered his altar with water. Water is known to be fire resistant and it is impossible for fire to burn in water. But it happened for Elijah to just say a short prayer and soon as possible, the fire was sent and burned the altar made by Elijah. It is then that people acknowledged God and followed him. From the story by Elijah, one would make conclusions that Baal was not the true God but Lord was. This is based in the contest that the God whom will send fire will be acknowledged as the only true God.
Exercise 4.9
Real world: The subject matter of the study is Mrs. Marion Keech who has contacts with extraterrestrial beings.
Model: According to the model, Mrs. Marion Keech contacts with the terrestrial beings and have informed her of the latest destruction that they will conduct in the world if the people did not get saved and meet at a specific designated location.
Prediction: The world will be destroyed if people did not get saved.
Data: The world was not destroyed.
Negative evidence: No! Prediction that the world will not be destroyed if people get saved agrees to the data.
Positive evidence: Is it likely that it is not the contact of Mrs. Marion Keech and the terrestrial beings that led to the people not being destroyed?
From the predictions made by Mrs. Marion, if people did not get saved, they all would be destroyed and the world destroyed. But from the concept, Mrs. Marion only said this to her followers. Likely all the other people in the world were not aware that the end was almost near. Therefore, they did not get saved nor did they gather at the designated location. Only the followers of Marion gathered in the area. Why then did the extraterrestrial beings not destroy the other people who had not gathered in the location? Why did the extraterrestrial beings forgive all the people in the world since they did not get Marion’s Message and did not get saved? Is it likely possible that the end of the world was not near and that Marion was not really in contact with the terrestrial beings? (Inconclusive data)
Exercise 4.10
Real world: The focus of the study is a young woman who recovered her complexion from bathing under a pyramid.
Model: According to the model, pyramids have special powers and it is from the powers of the pyramid that the young woman who had difficulty with her complexion got to recover by just bathing in a pitcher and without using any type of medication or makeup.
Prediction: Pyramids have special powers.
Data: The young woman recovered after bathing under the pyramid.
Negative evidence: NO! The prediction that pyramids have special powers agrees to the data that the young woman recovered her complexion after bathing under the pyramid.
Positive evidence: Would the data have likely agreed with the prediction even if pyramids do not have special powers? Are there other models that could better explain the young woman recovering back to her complexion?
The healing of the woman takes place soon as she accepts to always wash her face under the pyramid and not using the makeups as she used to do. What if it is the make ups that affected her face? Will it be enough to say that it is the special power of the pyramid that healed her face? The young woman has been for a long time using makes and medication on her face. Therefore, it is possible that the woman was affected due to the use of makeups as from the concept. After having the difficulty, she decided to get a method to get healed and someone suggests of bathing under the pyramid. What if it is the makeups that affected her face and as soon as she stopped using the makes, she recorded back to her complexion. (Inconclusive data)
Complete Answer:
